Posts Tagged ‘Mitt Romney’

Captain Rick: In my previous election scenarios (below), I stated that Obama’s 2012 support was at a 9% loss from his 2008 support. His actual loss appears to be about 4%, 5% less than my estimate. I believe much of the difference was due to my under estimation of the magnitude of Latino support that Obama gained during his first term as president, which offset other losses of support.

The Latino vote was a large factor in turning several states ‘blue’

Obama courted the Latino vote heavily during the past four years. Obama’s Department of Justice has sued Arizona over several immigration related issues, including Arizona’s SB1070, America’s toughest illegal immigration law. The case went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which upheld some key parts of the Arizona law. Obama also granted an avoidance of deportation for up to a million young illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria. Latinos view Obama favorably for his support of these events, which resulted in a strengthening of the traditional Latino ‘blue’ vote. This played a significant role in turning the ‘toss up’ states of Colorado, Nevada and Florida ‘blue’. (Florida results were not finalized when the map was created, however it was declared ‘blue’ on Nov. 10). Latino support in Arizona was strong enough to turn it from a ‘red’ state in prior elections to a ‘leaning red’ state in 2012.

The Latino vote is expanding rapidly in America

The Latino population in America is growing at about twice the rate of other groups. This growth explosion could cause the 2012 ‘leaning red’ states of Arizona and North Carolina to turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ in 2016. Texas and Georgia could turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ by 2020 or possibly even 2016. Several other states are following closely behind.

Analysis of what happened on Election night

Lets review the states I painted ‘red’ in my previous election scenarios, that were my last to call, positioned just below my ‘gut’ pick of 9% loss of 2008 Obama support.

Colorado: 8.95% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Virginia: 6.31% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Ohio: 4.54% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 4’. It went ‘blue’.

Captain Rick’s confessions and thoughts

Colorado: Early in my ‘election scenarios’ I said Colorado was going to be a pivotal state. Based on previous research, I believed it was going to go ‘blue’. I picked the final  ‘9%’ figure because Colorado was just below it, presenting the only chance for ‘red’ to win and give the ‘red’ supporters something to hope for. If I had lowered the 9% figure to say 8.9%, blue would have won. So, please forgive me for helping keep my ‘red’ followers with hope during the final days leading up to the election.

Virginia: Being so close to Washington DC and the ‘blue’ northeast, I figured it would go ‘blue’, but I went with the ‘red’ call to keep the excitement rolling during the final days leading up to the election.

Ohio: This was the state that pushed ‘blue’ over the 270 electoral vote threshold. Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960. No Republican has ever been elected without Ohio’s electoral votes. I felt Ohio would go ‘red’. This was a ‘wake up call’ to me and sets an interesting scenario for the 2016 election and beyond. In view of the above discussion, perhaps Ohio will join its ‘blue’ neighbors to the north and east and go permanently ‘blue’ in 2016. That would hypothetically mean the end of the ‘red’ Republican Party in America as ‘blue’ engulfs America from the west, north central, northeast and in future years…the south. That leaves much for all to think about.

Captain Rick’s Election Scenario #6: Reality

Had I lowered my ‘gut’ pick to 4% Obama 2008 support loss, it would have turned three states blue (Colorado, Virginia and Ohio) and resulted in the following map, which is also the map of actual current results.

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Captain Rick’s thoughts looking forward

It looks like the popular vote is is also ‘blue’, so it s in sync with the electoral vote. The archaic electoral vote system in America is a subject for future discussion. I hope my followers enjoyed my election scenarios and gained some useful information to consider as we move forward. I hope you will stay with me as I continue to strive to present unique, quality and accurate information.

Captain Rick: CNN’s final national poll before the election shows a tie in popular vote.

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However, the president of the United States is not chosen by popular vote. The winner must receive 270 or more electoral votes. In 2008 Obama won a ‘blowout’ of electoral votes as shown in the 2008 electoral map below.

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There will not be a ‘blowout’ in this election. As I have explained in my five previous election scenarios in blog entries below, Obama has lost about 9% of his 2008 popular vote. That places the electoral map into a ‘dead heat’. Lets recap…

The current CNN Electoral map:

Captain Rick’s final Election Scenario:

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View all of my previous Election Scenarios: https://atridim.wordpress.com/category/presidential-election/

Video and interesting info of the final CNN poll: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t1

I use CNN election data (not polls) in my election scenarios because I have found the info to be accurate and reliable over the years. I hope you will join me in tuning in to CNN.com on election night to watch the results pour in. I will do my best to post an early call of the winner, based on my election scenarios. For sure, you can expect a follow up analysis and blog posting of how it all transpired … what went right and what went wrong … and what we can expect from the results.

Your ‘eagle eye’ on global politics, Captain Rick

Captain Rick: This is Part 5 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. My analysis is based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I highly respect as being very accurate … coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections. As stated in my previous report, my gut says Obama has lost 9% of his 2008 support. I weigh that with heightened significance in this report.

In my previous report Obama and Romney were all tied up at 253/253 electoral votes. In this report I analyze the remaining states of Virginia with 13 electoral votes, Colorado with 9, Iowa with 6 and New Hampshire with 4.

Virginia was blue in 2008 by 6.31%. It was red by greater percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it red.

Iowa was blue in 2008 by 9.58% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

New Hampshire was blue in 2008 by 9.65% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

That leaves Colorado with a blue vote by 8.95% in 2008, just .05% on the red side of 9% gut call, but a sizable red vote in previous elections. I am going to go out on the limb, beyond the the point of hearing it crack, and call Colorado red.

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That adjusts the electoral votes to 263 for Obama and 275 for Romney, making Romney the next President of the United States of America.

After the votes are in from election day, I will post a final report of how my analysis and ‘9% gut feeling’ faired.

Captain Rick: This is Part 4 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. They are based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I have come to highly respect as being the most accurate in recent elections…coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections.

CNN has now moved Missouri and Indiana to Red and North Carolina from toss up to pink. I had moved them to red in previous reports. So, all is working properly.

In this report I will analyze Ohio with its 18 electoral votes. it is said that Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960 and that no Republican has ever won without its support.  In previous reports I have discussed how my gut says Obama has lost 8-10% of his 2008 support. I will get brave and zero in on the dead center of 9%. Considering the remaining toss-up states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire …(continued below the map)

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Ohio is the state with the weakest Obama support of 4.54% in 2008. It was also a red state in 2000 and 2004. Being about 4.5% below my gut stat of 9% Obama loss of support since 2008, lets paint Ohio red.

This ties things up at 253 electoral votes each. What a “nail biter”. There are still four toss-up states left with a total of 32 electoral votes. The final result can go either way. The remaining four states are all extremely close to my gut pick of 9% Obama loss since 2008. Watch for part 5 of my for my election scenario’s when I narrow the field of toss-up states to 3 or less.

The map incorrectly shows Michigan leaning blue. I painted it blue in a previous report. This does not affect my electoral vote totals.

Link to Part 3 of my 2012 Election Scenarios: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-the-yellow-states-red-or-blue-based-on-2008-obama-support/

Link to part 2 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/captain-ricks-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-all-of-the-leaning-red-states-red-and-the-leaning-blue-states-blue/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Captain Rick: This is part 3 of a continuing story. Part 2, posted October 19, 2012, presented a map showing electoral status if leaning states were turned red or blue based on the way they were leaning. Obama had 237 electoral votes, Romney 191.

In this scenario we will begin to examine the yellow “Toss up” states. It is no secret that Obama has lost support since 2008. The question is how much? My gut says Obama lost somewhere between 8 and 10% of his 2008 support. In this scenario, lets weed out the states that were weak and heavy Obama supporters in 2008.

Florida: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. A recent CNN poll shows Florida leaning red by 1%. Lets turn it red.

North Carolina: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. Lets turn it red.

Wisconsin: In 2008 Obama won by 13.93%. Lets turn it blue.

Nevada: In 2008 Obama won by 12.5%. Lets turn it blue.

The map below shows the results:

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This scenario cuts Obama’s previous lead of 46 electoral votes to 18.

Watch for my next report, part 4, as I investigate the remaining “Toss up” states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Link to Part 4: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-part-4-lets-turn-ohio-red-or-blue-wow/

Link to part 2 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/captain-ricks-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-all-of-the-leaning-red-states-red-and-the-leaning-blue-states-blue/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Captain Rick: This is part 2 of a continuing story. Part 1, posted October 2, 2012, presented a map showing the current electoral status of leaning red and leaning blue states. Nothing has changed since then. All of the leaning states are still leaning the same way.

Leaning Red States: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri

Leaning Blue States: Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

If we turn all of the leaning red states red and all of the leaning blue states blue, this map shows the results:

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Obama still holds a lead by 46 electoral votes. The yellow ‘Toss up’ states will determine this election.

In part 3 of this continuing story I investigate the makeup of the ‘Toss up’ states in an effort to accurately predict the electoral results of the November U.S. Presidential Election. Part 3 was posted on October 21, 2012: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-the-yellow-states-red-or-blue-based-on-2008-obama-support/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_

Captain Rick: Watching the debate last evening, I heard nothing new. It seemed to be much of the same old political rhetoric from both sides.

I did generate an overall perception of how the debate went … I think it all comes down to body language.

Many years ago I developed a very simple means of scoring the debates. It has proven to be very accurate over the years in predicting the next president. It works like this. I take a note pad and write Obama on the left and Romney on the right. I draw a vertical line between them and then place a mark every time I hear a remark that I think will be a winner among American voters.

My Obama / Romney scorecard results: Obama: 11 / Romney 20

But, an equally important part of my analysis is to turn off the sound and re-view the debate. It’s a great way to strip out all of the verbal rhetoric and just watch the body language. Obama looked like he was tired and somewhat mad with a frown on his face much of the time. Romney was full of robust and looked happy with a smile much of the time. I think America will consider this as a strong ingredient in their vote on November 6.

We still have several debates to go. I will be watching. I hope you will also. I will report the results as I see, hear and feel them. I welcome you to chime in and express your thoughts. Our world only improves when we ‘speak up’.