Captain Rick’s 2012 Election Scenarios … … Part 6: Obama reelected … What happened? Did the Latino vote make the difference?

Captain Rick: In my previous election scenarios (below), I stated that Obama’s 2012 support was at a 9% loss from his 2008 support. His actual loss appears to be about 4%, 5% less than my estimate. I believe much of the difference was due to my under estimation of the magnitude of Latino support that Obama gained during his first term as president, which offset other losses of support.

The Latino vote was a large factor in turning several states ‘blue’

Obama courted the Latino vote heavily during the past four years. Obama’s Department of Justice has sued Arizona over several immigration related issues, including Arizona’s SB1070, America’s toughest illegal immigration law. The case went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which upheld some key parts of the Arizona law. Obama also granted an avoidance of deportation for up to a million young illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria. Latinos view Obama favorably for his support of these events, which resulted in a strengthening of the traditional Latino ‘blue’ vote. This played a significant role in turning the ‘toss up’ states of Colorado, Nevada and Florida ‘blue’. (Florida results were not finalized when the map was created, however it was declared ‘blue’ on Nov. 10). Latino support in Arizona was strong enough to turn it from a ‘red’ state in prior elections to a ‘leaning red’ state in 2012.

The Latino vote is expanding rapidly in America

The Latino population in America is growing at about twice the rate of other groups. This growth explosion could cause the 2012 ‘leaning red’ states of Arizona and North Carolina to turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ in 2016. Texas and Georgia could turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ by 2020 or possibly even 2016. Several other states are following closely behind.

Analysis of what happened on Election night

Lets review the states I painted ‘red’ in my previous election scenarios, that were my last to call, positioned just below my ‘gut’ pick of 9% loss of 2008 Obama support.

Colorado: 8.95% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Virginia: 6.31% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Ohio: 4.54% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 4’. It went ‘blue’.

Captain Rick’s confessions and thoughts

Colorado: Early in my ‘election scenarios’ I said Colorado was going to be a pivotal state. Based on previous research, I believed it was going to go ‘blue’. I picked the final  ‘9%’ figure because Colorado was just below it, presenting the only chance for ‘red’ to win and give the ‘red’ supporters something to hope for. If I had lowered the 9% figure to say 8.9%, blue would have won. So, please forgive me for helping keep my ‘red’ followers with hope during the final days leading up to the election.

Virginia: Being so close to Washington DC and the ‘blue’ northeast, I figured it would go ‘blue’, but I went with the ‘red’ call to keep the excitement rolling during the final days leading up to the election.

Ohio: This was the state that pushed ‘blue’ over the 270 electoral vote threshold. Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960. No Republican has ever been elected without Ohio’s electoral votes. I felt Ohio would go ‘red’. This was a ‘wake up call’ to me and sets an interesting scenario for the 2016 election and beyond. In view of the above discussion, perhaps Ohio will join its ‘blue’ neighbors to the north and east and go permanently ‘blue’ in 2016. That would hypothetically mean the end of the ‘red’ Republican Party in America as ‘blue’ engulfs America from the west, north central, northeast and in future years…the south. That leaves much for all to think about.

Captain Rick’s Election Scenario #6: Reality

Had I lowered my ‘gut’ pick to 4% Obama 2008 support loss, it would have turned three states blue (Colorado, Virginia and Ohio) and resulted in the following map, which is also the map of actual current results.

Captain Rick’s thoughts looking forward

It looks like the popular vote is is also ‘blue’, so it s in sync with the electoral vote. The archaic electoral vote system in America is a subject for future discussion. I hope my followers enjoyed my election scenarios and gained some useful information to consider as we move forward. I hope you will stay with me as I continue to strive to present unique, quality and accurate information.

Ken of California: “I gotta get out of this liberal mess”… Arizona is a Pink state?

Captain Rick: I received an email today from my friend Ken in California. He said “Arizona is a pink state. You really need to get busy and turn it red. It’s hopeless for me here in California. I gotta get out of this liberal mess.”

Ken, thanks for your email. I hope you will become brave, like me, and post your future replies on my blog so that the entire world can enjoy your important perspective. I will give you a helping hand for your email today.

When I moved to Arizona in 1996, it was one of the most conservative ‘RED’ states there was in the entire country. During the nearly two decades since, many thousands of illegal aliens crossed our very porous border with Mexico…a border that the U.S. government poorly defends.  I do not blame them for wanting to come to a our great state of Arizona, in comparison to the poor economic conditions in their home countries. But the fact is that most of them came to Arizona illegally. America’s laws…or lack of them, allow them to vote. Over the years the Latino vote in Arizona has exploded. Latinos historically vote liberal “BLUE” because it is laden with lots of freebies like health, education and welfare at the expense America’s major tax payers…the middle class. President Obama has recently proclaimed that many children of illegals that were brought to this country at a young age will receive what I call ‘amnesty’. This political move has placed the Latino vote on fire and could become a leading factor in the decision for our next president. It is no secret that Obama is courting the Latino vote. Lets not forget Obama’s massive DOJ attack on Arizona’s SB1070 illegal immigration law.

So it is…Arizona fades from bright RED to PINK. The Latino vote in America will soon turn many of the “RED” states to “PINK” or even “BLUE” in the coming years. Our country is changing as a result of neglegence of those we elect to serve the best interest of America. Tonight’s prime time presidential debate could set the election and America’s course for the next four years.  I have never missed a presidential debate during my entire life of many decades. I urge all to watch and respond with your comments of which candidate you think did a good or bad job of presentation on a subject.