Posts Tagged ‘Jobs Report’

Captain Rick : U.S. Labor Report disappoints those looking for a job and paints a stagnant image of the U.S. Economy as it continues its course toward Socialism.

The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added only 151,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9% from 5% the month prior, while forecasts called for it to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.6%, despite expectations for it to hold steady. Its all a sign of America headed toward Socialism.

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This Labor Report sends a cold chill for the U.S. Economy …

The creation of only 151,000 jobs is very weak considering it is only 0.56 % of U.S. population (323 million). That does not even equal the U.S. population growth rate which is about 0.7% … which means that job growth is not only stagnant, but going in reverse. The U.S. still has not recovered millions of jobs lost during the Great Recession.

The unemployment rate of 4.9% is totally bogus … its meaningless. It only represents the minority of job seekers that are still receiving unemployment compensation. The real unemployment rate is more than twice as high. Most job seekers have exhausted their benefits, still looking for work with no income, are working a part-time job to make ends meet or have given up looking for work.

Perhaps the most important statistic in the labor  report is the drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate … to just 62.6%. It means that about 1/3 of eligible U.S. workers are not working. Some retired early and are living off of savings. Some have managed to work the system and are living off of welfare benefits, including many who have managed to acquire ‘Disability’ status and are collecting U.S. Social Security Disability benefits (SSDI) and some who are being supported by friends or relatives and some who are homeless. The Labor Force Participation rate has been in steady decline since its peak of 67.3% in 2000. This trend is a vivid indicator of America’s march toward Socialism.

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Interesting ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Links:

ANJ: Unemployment

ANJ: Economy

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Captain Rick: U.S. Job Growth has crawled upward to pass the break-even rate with with population growth. The trend is in the right direction. The jobs being added are mostly low wage. There is little hope of regaining the 8.7 million medium to high wage jobs lost during the Great Recession any time soon.

The chart below shows the new jobs added during each month of the the past year. 

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GREEN LINE: an average of 214,000 new jobs have been created each month during the past year

BLUE LINE: an average of 185,000 new jobs need to be created each month to keep up with U.S. Population growth of 0.7%

REAL JOB GROWTH: is represented by the difference between the Green and Blue lines … 29,000 new jobs each month that exceed population growth.

How long will it take to recover the 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great Recession: At the ‘Real Job Growth Rate’ of 29,000 new jobs per month, it will require 300 months … or 25 years. That is a long time, during which many other significant concerns will come into play … like the U.S. Debt crisis … on track to explode during the next decade.

Wages remain stagnated: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said she wants to see wages rise faster than inflation so American households will have more buying power. That has yet to happen. I personally think Janet and the entire Fed are living in a ‘dream cloud’.

New poll show majority rating the U.S. economy as ‘Poor’: Many Americans still think the economy is not fully recovered. According to the results of a CNN/ORC International poll released Friday, 41% of people surveyed rate the economy as "good", while 58% rate the economy as "poor."

Perceptions about the U.S. economy will be a key factor in November’s midterm elections: More than a third of the Senate and the entire House are up for grabs. Both sides of the aisle are blaming each other for holding back the recovery. I blame almost all of them. I hope the American voters will exercise their thoughts and register their voices in the upcoming elections and vote out of office the majority of those now in office.

Captain Rick’s Prognosis: America is traveling into uncharted territory, which if not handled properly by the U.S. Congress (which is very unlikely, based on performance in the past decade), has the potential to drive America over the pending ‘real fiscal cliff’ and reduce America to a ‘third world nation’.

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Interesting ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Links:

Jobs

U.S. Debt Crisis

GDP

Economy

Captain Rick’s Fiscal Cliff Course 101

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Captain Rick: U.S. Job Growth is not keeping up with population growth. The 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great Recession will never return. Despite the ‘glory employment talk’ presented by the Obama Administration, America’s job situation qualifies among the worst since the Great Depression. I present the simple math to expose a monumental economic problem developing that will help deliver America to the edge of the pending ‘real fiscal cliff’.

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BLUE LINE: 185,000 jobs need to be created each year to keep up with U.S. Population growth of 0.7%

RED LINE: 177,000 jobs represents the average number of jobs created during the past year. This demonstrates a negative pattern that is not keeping up with population growth.

Great Recession Job Losses are Gone Forever

8.7 million jobs were lost during the Great Recession of the late 2000s. It has been stated that 8 million of those have been restored. Simple math proves this to be incorrect. In actuality, none of those jobs have been restored when considering the jobs needed to be added each year to keep pace with population growth. America is running a significant job deficit.

Captain Rick’s Job Numbers Math

317,725,000 U.S Population

0.7% growth rate (*.007)

2,224,075 people enter job market every year

/12

185,340 people enter job market every month

*12 months *5 years

11,120,375 jobs needed to be added in past 5 years since prior to great recession to keep up with population growth

-8.7 Million jobs lost

+8 Million jobs regained

.7 Million jobs still needed to be recovered

+11.1 Million jobs needed to be added to keep up with population growth

11.8 Million jobs short since prior to the Great recession 5 years ago.

At the current pace of job growth, which is not keeping up with population growth, the jobs lost during the ‘Great Recession’ will never be regained.

Where the new jobs were created

The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs last month

Construction added 15,000 jobs, restaurants and bars added 20,100 jobs and education and health services added 33,000 jobs.

By far, the strongest hiring came from professional and business services industries, which include accountants, architects and technology workers. This sector alone added 79,000 jobs last month.

Wages are up: Average earnings ticked up 9 cents, to $24.31 an hour in February. It was the largest monthly wage gain in more than two years.

Long-term unemployment and underemployment remain high

Long-term unemployment remains high. As of February, 3.8 million Americans were unemployed for six months or more.

The underemployment rate — technically known as the U-6 — was 12.6%. That includes the unemployed, plus part-time workers who want to work full time, and people who want a job but haven’t searched for one in the last four weeks.

Labor Participation is lowest since 1978

Labor participation lowest since 1978; just over 63% of the population is engaged in the workforce, driven partly by Baby Boomers retiring, but also by workers who had simply given up hope after long and fruitless job searches. It means that a smaller chunk of the population is paying for promised entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare. If a smaller share of the country is working, it will also act as a drag on economic growth.

What does this Employment data mean concerning the future of America?

America is stuck in a land of anemic growth…actually declining in real growth because its economy can not consistently produce enough jobs to keep pace with America’s 0.7% population growth. In reality, this means that America is declining in economic strength. In the coming few years America faces an astronomical increase in expenditures due to entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and welfare programs like Medicaid and Obamacare. America’s relatively level revenue will not be able to cover the mushrooming expenditures. Congress will not be able to address this problem by simply ‘kicking the debt can down the road’ as it has in recent years. At some point soon, the fiscal mess that is brewing will explode as America plunges over the pending ‘real fiscal cliff’.  At the bottom lies America as a third world country.

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Interesting ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Report Categories:

Jobs

GDP

U.S. Debt Crisis

Economy

Entitlement Reform

Social Security

Medicare

Medicaid

ObamaCare

Captain Rick’s Fiscal Cliff Course 101

Captain Rick: The January Jobs Report shows a continuing drop in new jobs created and a reality that job creation in America is stuck in neutral … or possibly reverse. 150,000 new jobs are needed to be created every month just to keep pace with population growth as represented by my red line in the chart below. Overall, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs during the Great Recession, and is still down about 3.2 million jobs from the labor market’s height in January 2008. The 5.6 million jobs that were created since the Great Recession also had to provide for the 9 million new job seekers entering the market since January 2008, due to population growth. Realistically, another 8.8 million jobs would have been needed to be added during the past few years to equal the American job scene of January 2008. At the current pace, those jobs will not be returning any time soon. Making things even worse is the fact that many of the jobs being added are relatively low paying in comparison to the jobs that were lost.

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The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in January. That’s slower growth than in December, when employers hired 196,000 workers. Some call it “Groundhog Day in the labor market” and say “We’ve been waking up to this same story for four years.”

The biggest job sector gainers
In January, businesses added 166,000 jobs while federal, state and local governments cut 9,000. The government continued to cut jobs for the fourth month in a row.

Retail added 33,000 jobs, with about a third of those gains at clothing stores.

Construction firms added 28,000 jobs, reflecting a stronger housing market and rebuilding efforts after Superstorm Sandy.

Health care added 23,000 jobs. Most of those jobs were in ambulatory health care services, a category that includes doctors’ offices and outpatient care centers.

Manufacturers added only 4,000 jobs. The Labor Department noted that employment in this sector has changed little since July. Manufacturing once was the job sector that built and sustained America as a great country. America’s manufacturing jobs have mostly been lost to places like China because of lower wages and NO unions!

Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate increased to 7.9% in January, as 12.3 million people were counted as unemployed.
The number of jobless Americans out of work at least six months was roughly unchanged at 4.7 million and that group represents only 38% of the unemployed.

A broader measure of the job market’s health called the underemployment rate — it includes the unemployed, discouraged Americans who have stopped looking for work and part-time workers who want full-time jobs — was unchanged last month at 14.4%.

Outlook for 2013 and beyond
Economists are expecting job growth to remain stalled during 2013.  Political uncertainty that is still hanging over employers, as they wait for Congress to hash out a budget deal. Amid an impasse between Democrats and Republicans, chances are growing that automatic spending cuts, which aim to reduce deficits by $1.2 trillion over a decade, could take effect starting in March. All of this will likely have significant negative impact on the job scene.

The best hope we have of seeing an improving job scene in the next few years is for the U.S. Congress to pass legislation to permanently solve the U.S. Debt Crisis, including working towards balancing the budget. Our nation can not continue living on deficit spending … money it does not have. That is a recipe for eventual total economic failure. While it’s continuing practice of ‘kicking the can down the road’ might prevent further erosion of jobs short term, it will most assuredly will set our nation up for a much larger recession and loss of jobs in a few years.

View prior reports on Jobs: https://atridim.wordpress.com/category/jobs/

Captain Rick: Hiring ticked up to 171,000 new jobs in October … along with the unemployment rate, up .1% to 7.9%. The biggest job sector gainers were business services at 51,000 positions. Health care added 31,000, construction 17,000. Caution…many of the jobs added were low-paying service jobs.

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Captain Rick’s REAL Mathematical Jobs Analysis:

At least 150,000 jobs need to be created each month (1,800,000 per year) to keep pace with the growing population, as represented by my red line in the chart above.

In the past 12 months, beginning November 2011, America has added 1,950,000 new jobs. Subtracting the needed addition of 1,800,000 to keep pace with population growth, America added just 125,000 REAL jobs in the last year. That represents a move in the positive direction, but is far short of what is needed to regain the nearly 9 million jobs lost during the Great U.S. Recession in 2008-2009. At the pace American jobs have been restored during the past year, America will not experience a return to pre-recession job conditions for decades, if ever. Many economists share my feeling that what we are seeing now is the new job norm. The great job conditions of the mid 2000s will not be returning … possibly ever.

The U.S. Fiscal Cliff: This is the most important fiscal challenge facing America … perhaps the most monumental in U.S. history. How our legislators manage this crisis will determine America’s Jobs outlook and fiscal status for years to come. If not handled properly, our legislators are in position to reduce America to a third world country during the coming years. This is very serious ‘stuff’. I will do my best to keep you informed. Read my report on the Fiscal Cliff: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/09/26/fiscal-cliff-what-the-heck-is-it-how-will-it-affect-us/

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Captain Rick:

Unions in America have well outlived their benefit. Over the past half century I have witnessed thousands of good paying manufacturing jobs shipped overseas because of union pressure for higher wages and benefits. The fact is that there are lots of people in other countries that will willingly do the jobs that America thinks do not pay enough. Now that unions have destroyed most of the manufacturing jobs, they are attacking the only ‘meat’ left…the service jobs, which include teaching, police, fire and other government jobs. The unions figure that these jobs cant be shipped overseas so they are safe territory to strike with demands of higher wages and benefits.

WRONG! This plan will fail and it will take what is left of good paying American jobs and make them history. This strike is so big (and stupid) that it most likely will effect the federal Jobs Report which already demonstrates that American jobs are on life support. President Obama, who supports unions and accepts significant financial support from them, might find himself out of office in November because of them.

The above is a photo snip is from: http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/17/news/economy/chicago-teachers-strike-jobs-report/index.html?iid=Popular

Some interesting excerpts:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — As it drags on for a second week, the Chicago teachers strike is so large it could distort national economic statistics, including the Labor Department’s key monthly jobs report.

About 26,000 teachers and support staff are striking in Chicago, demanding higher pay, better job security and changes to a new evaluation system.

The strike’s timing is key, in that it coincides with the period in which the government collects data for the national jobs report.

Last month, that report showed the economy added only 96,000 jobs. The number was seen as weak, posing a challenge for President Obama as he faces re-election.

September’s report could look far worse if the strike continues.