Posts Tagged ‘Arizona Vote’

Captain Rick: In my previous election scenarios (below), I stated that Obama’s 2012 support was at a 9% loss from his 2008 support. His actual loss appears to be about 4%, 5% less than my estimate. I believe much of the difference was due to my under estimation of the magnitude of Latino support that Obama gained during his first term as president, which offset other losses of support.

The Latino vote was a large factor in turning several states ‘blue’

Obama courted the Latino vote heavily during the past four years. Obama’s Department of Justice has sued Arizona over several immigration related issues, including Arizona’s SB1070, America’s toughest illegal immigration law. The case went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which upheld some key parts of the Arizona law. Obama also granted an avoidance of deportation for up to a million young illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria. Latinos view Obama favorably for his support of these events, which resulted in a strengthening of the traditional Latino ‘blue’ vote. This played a significant role in turning the ‘toss up’ states of Colorado, Nevada and Florida ‘blue’. (Florida results were not finalized when the map was created, however it was declared ‘blue’ on Nov. 10). Latino support in Arizona was strong enough to turn it from a ‘red’ state in prior elections to a ‘leaning red’ state in 2012.

The Latino vote is expanding rapidly in America

The Latino population in America is growing at about twice the rate of other groups. This growth explosion could cause the 2012 ‘leaning red’ states of Arizona and North Carolina to turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ in 2016. Texas and Georgia could turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ by 2020 or possibly even 2016. Several other states are following closely behind.

Analysis of what happened on Election night

Lets review the states I painted ‘red’ in my previous election scenarios, that were my last to call, positioned just below my ‘gut’ pick of 9% loss of 2008 Obama support.

Colorado: 8.95% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Virginia: 6.31% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Ohio: 4.54% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 4’. It went ‘blue’.

Captain Rick’s confessions and thoughts

Colorado: Early in my ‘election scenarios’ I said Colorado was going to be a pivotal state. Based on previous research, I believed it was going to go ‘blue’. I picked the final  ‘9%’ figure because Colorado was just below it, presenting the only chance for ‘red’ to win and give the ‘red’ supporters something to hope for. If I had lowered the 9% figure to say 8.9%, blue would have won. So, please forgive me for helping keep my ‘red’ followers with hope during the final days leading up to the election.

Virginia: Being so close to Washington DC and the ‘blue’ northeast, I figured it would go ‘blue’, but I went with the ‘red’ call to keep the excitement rolling during the final days leading up to the election.

Ohio: This was the state that pushed ‘blue’ over the 270 electoral vote threshold. Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960. No Republican has ever been elected without Ohio’s electoral votes. I felt Ohio would go ‘red’. This was a ‘wake up call’ to me and sets an interesting scenario for the 2016 election and beyond. In view of the above discussion, perhaps Ohio will join its ‘blue’ neighbors to the north and east and go permanently ‘blue’ in 2016. That would hypothetically mean the end of the ‘red’ Republican Party in America as ‘blue’ engulfs America from the west, north central, northeast and in future years…the south. That leaves much for all to think about.

Captain Rick’s Election Scenario #6: Reality

Had I lowered my ‘gut’ pick to 4% Obama 2008 support loss, it would have turned three states blue (Colorado, Virginia and Ohio) and resulted in the following map, which is also the map of actual current results.


Captain Rick’s thoughts looking forward

It looks like the popular vote is is also ‘blue’, so it s in sync with the electoral vote. The archaic electoral vote system in America is a subject for future discussion. I hope my followers enjoyed my election scenarios and gained some useful information to consider as we move forward. I hope you will stay with me as I continue to strive to present unique, quality and accurate information.

Arizona Propositions on the Nov 2, 2010 Election Ballot + my voting suggestions
Arizona Constitutional Amendments:
106…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution in an attempt to circumvent Obamacare.
107…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to prevent Affirmative Action programs that favor minorities.
109…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to make hunting and fishing a citizen’s right that can not be restricted by special interest groups….like those that don’t want animals and fish killed.
110…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to allow for trading state trust land in order to protect land around military bases like Luke AFB from encroachment.
111…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to amend the title of AZ Sec of State to AZ Lt. Gov. Makes AZ like most other states. Places Gov and Lt. Gov on the same ticket (same party). If Gov dies, leaves….the party in power, stays in power.
112…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to allow 6 months, instead of 4 to acquire signatures for a initiative petition. 
113…Vote YES…amends AZ constitution to allow people to vote via secret ballot to stop people from being harassed into voting yes for creating a union.
Citizen Initiatives to revise AZ State Law: 
203…Vote NO…legalizes marijuana in Arizona. Forces Arizona to establish a costly regulatory system at tax payer expense.
Legislative referrals to revise AZ Statutes:
301…Vote YES…transfers $124 Million from Land Conservation Fund back into the general fund to be used for land conservation related costs to help reduce the current AZ $1.7 Billion deficit.  This fund was established by the Growing Smarter initiative back in 1998, when money was oozing out of the cracks. AZ can no longer afford to take $20 Million from the general fund every year to speculate in land investment. 
302…Vote YES…transfers $324 Million from the Early Childhood Development Fund to the general fund to be used to increase quality and access of early childhood development and health services to help reduce the current $1.7 Billion AZ deficit. The fund originated from $.80 tax per pack of cigarettes in a 2006 voter initiative.
I welcome your comments,
Captain Rick