Archive for the ‘Presidential Election’ Category

Captain Rick: It was shortly after Donald Trump announced his run for president that I knew in my heart he was going to go all the way. I sensed the strong movement among Americans who longed to ‘Make America Great Again’ way back when FAKE NEWS and the GOP were fast asleep, content with the political cancer in DC.

Unlike todays FAKE NEWS journalists who mostly communicate via social media … Captain Rick, a REAL NEWS journalist actually walked the streets and trails to talk face-to-face with real people to find out how they were thinking and feeling. That is why Captain Rick knew that a revolution was brewing in America. That revolution thrust Trump into the White House and shocked FAKE NEWS and the GOP. It is time for the GOP to learn from its mistakes and promote the election of candidates who support the Trump movement towards Making America Great Again.

image

This Atridim News Journal blog on WordPress is accompanied by its companion Atridim News Journal blog on Facebook. It was there in early 2016 that Captain Rick began publishing weekly projections of how the large field of presidential candidates ranked. Looking back, Captain Rick called all of the rankings with perfection, while FAKE NEWS got it all so wrong, week after week. Its all on record for the world to review on ANJ on Facebook. A window is provided in the left column that shows ANJ blog posts on Facebook. Helpful info links are presented below.

Who is the journalist Captain Rick Atridim?

Follow Captain Rick Atridim on Facebook

Follow Atridim News Journal on Facebook

Follow Captain Rick’s World Think Tank group on Facebook

Follow Captain Rick’s Chandler-Gilbert Think Tank on Facebook

Press the button to Follow Atridim News Journal on WordPress

Your comments are greatly appreciated.

Captain Rick: Donald Trump emerged from what the news media called a ‘joke’ a year ago, beating out 16 primary opponents to head the 2016 Republican Party ticket for President of the United States.

Trump’s drive was historic. He received a record high Republican delegate count and primary voter turnout. He is the first person to win a major party nomination without having previously held public office since Dwight Eisenhower. Trump created a movement in American politics, transforming a ‘nearly dead’ GOP into a party with new vibrancy that appeals to many more voters, including many independents and even democrats.

image

Photo: Donald J. Trump accepts nomination for president at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland Ohio on July 21, 2016.

Ivanka Trump (Executive VP of the Trump Organization) introduced her father, softening his image, saying that he is color-blind and gender-neutral.

Donald Trump said he ‘humbly and gratefully’ accepts the presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio. "We will lead our country back to safety, prosperity and peace."

He pledged to be a voice for working Americans who have been let down by government and that the elites who have run it. "So to every parent who dreams for their child, and every child who dreams for their future, I say these words to you tonight: I’m with you, I will fight for you, and I will win for you."

He said he will restore law and order in America the day he takes office on January 2017. "Our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life," he said. "Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country."

He said the American political system is “rigged”. "Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it," Trump said. 

Trump’s address was the most crucial moment yet in his transformation, from a brash tycoon and reality star to a presidential nominee with an expansive vision of disruptive change. The speech clocked in at 1 hour 15 minutes, surpassing Bill Clinton’s 1992 marathon and longest since 1972.

Captain Rick of Atridim News Journal: Russian President Vladimir Putin is one of the world’s most intelligent leaders, while President Obama ‘speaks down’ of him, as do many U.S. presidential contenders and much of the western world news media.

I am encouraged by an apparent bonding between Putin and Trump. It reminds me of the bond between President Ronald Reagan and Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union that helped tear down the Berlin Wall in 1989. I believe we are witnessing the beginning of a bonding of two great minds for the betterment of America and the world.

image

Donald Trump has said that he would "get along very well" with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The feeling is apparently mutual. Putin offered high praise for the billionaire businessman-turned-Republican presidential front-runner on Thursday during an annual news conference with reporters. "He is a bright and talented person without any doubt," Putin said, adding that Trump is "an outstanding and talented personality." And in remarks closely mirroring Trump’s assessment of the campaign, Putin called Trump "the absolute leader of the presidential race." Later Thursday, Trump returned the warm words "It is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond. I have always felt that Russia and the United States should be able to work well with each other towards defeating terrorism and restoring world peace, not to mention trade and all of the other benefits derived from mutual respect."

While most Republican presidential contenders have demonized the Russian president — including calling him a "gangster" and a "thug" — and pushed plans to isolate Russia on the world stage, Trump has instead touted his ability to improve Washington-Moscow relations by working with the iron-fisted Russian leader.

Trump said in October that he and Putin "are very different"; but suggested that the two men could move beyond the frigid relations that have come to define U.S.-Russia relations under President Barack Obama. "I think that I would at the same time get along very well with him. He does not like Obama at all. He doesn’t respect Obama at all. And I’m sure that Obama doesn’t like him very much," Trump said then. "But I think that I would probably get along with him very well. And I don’t think you’d be having the kind of problems that you’re having right now."

Putin referenced Trump’s reported desire "to reach another, deeper level of relations" with Russia in his remarks Thursday. "What else can we do but to welcome it? Certainly, we welcome it," Putin said.

While fellow Republican contenders have been highly skeptical of stepped up Russian military involvement in Syria, Trump has welcomed it. Trump suggested in his September "60 Minutes" appearance that the U.S. should avoid deepening its involvement in Syria, instead allowing Russia to take a leading role in combating the radical Islamist group that has called for attacks on the U.S. "Russia wants to get rid of ISIS. We want to get rid of ISIS. Maybe let Russia do it. Let them get rid of ISIS" Trump said.

Interesting ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Posts, Categories, Links and Stats are presented in Left Column

Your comment is welcome and will be greatly appreciated,
Captain Rick

Captain Rick : If the 2016 presidential election were today, who would you vote for, regardless of political party?
The World Think Tank, Facebook’s highest quality think tank, is conducting a presidential election poll of its member Thinkers that is live and will be ongoing thru election day in 2016. Currently Donald Trump is holding a lead.

Facebook members are welcome to view the WTT poll results to see where Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul and other candidates place. WTT members are welcome to place their vote to sway the ranks of this poll and share their thoughts of wisdom with the world.

image
Click the image above to enter the World Think Tank

Poll results can be found in the WTT ‘2016 US Presidential Race’ DISCUSSION, always positioned near the top of the World Think Tank.

Look for a ‘BEEP BEEP’ icon near the bottom of the discussion for the latest WTT Presidential Poll Stats.

The WTT ‘2016 Presidential Race’ DISCUSSION, approaching 1000 comments, is one of the hottest on Facebook.

See you in the Tank,
Captain Rick, WTT founder

Interesting ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Posts, Categories, Links and Stats are presented in Left Column

Captain Rick: In my previous election scenarios (below), I stated that Obama’s 2012 support was at a 9% loss from his 2008 support. His actual loss appears to be about 4%, 5% less than my estimate. I believe much of the difference was due to my under estimation of the magnitude of Latino support that Obama gained during his first term as president, which offset other losses of support.

The Latino vote was a large factor in turning several states ‘blue’

Obama courted the Latino vote heavily during the past four years. Obama’s Department of Justice has sued Arizona over several immigration related issues, including Arizona’s SB1070, America’s toughest illegal immigration law. The case went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which upheld some key parts of the Arizona law. Obama also granted an avoidance of deportation for up to a million young illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria. Latinos view Obama favorably for his support of these events, which resulted in a strengthening of the traditional Latino ‘blue’ vote. This played a significant role in turning the ‘toss up’ states of Colorado, Nevada and Florida ‘blue’. (Florida results were not finalized when the map was created, however it was declared ‘blue’ on Nov. 10). Latino support in Arizona was strong enough to turn it from a ‘red’ state in prior elections to a ‘leaning red’ state in 2012.

The Latino vote is expanding rapidly in America

The Latino population in America is growing at about twice the rate of other groups. This growth explosion could cause the 2012 ‘leaning red’ states of Arizona and North Carolina to turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ in 2016. Texas and Georgia could turn ‘leaning blue’ or ‘blue’ by 2020 or possibly even 2016. Several other states are following closely behind.

Analysis of what happened on Election night

Lets review the states I painted ‘red’ in my previous election scenarios, that were my last to call, positioned just below my ‘gut’ pick of 9% loss of 2008 Obama support.

Colorado: 8.95% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Virginia: 6.31% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 5’. It went ‘blue’.

Ohio: 4.54% ‘blue’ in 2008. I painted it ‘red’ in ‘scenario 4’. It went ‘blue’.

Captain Rick’s confessions and thoughts

Colorado: Early in my ‘election scenarios’ I said Colorado was going to be a pivotal state. Based on previous research, I believed it was going to go ‘blue’. I picked the final  ‘9%’ figure because Colorado was just below it, presenting the only chance for ‘red’ to win and give the ‘red’ supporters something to hope for. If I had lowered the 9% figure to say 8.9%, blue would have won. So, please forgive me for helping keep my ‘red’ followers with hope during the final days leading up to the election.

Virginia: Being so close to Washington DC and the ‘blue’ northeast, I figured it would go ‘blue’, but I went with the ‘red’ call to keep the excitement rolling during the final days leading up to the election.

Ohio: This was the state that pushed ‘blue’ over the 270 electoral vote threshold. Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960. No Republican has ever been elected without Ohio’s electoral votes. I felt Ohio would go ‘red’. This was a ‘wake up call’ to me and sets an interesting scenario for the 2016 election and beyond. In view of the above discussion, perhaps Ohio will join its ‘blue’ neighbors to the north and east and go permanently ‘blue’ in 2016. That would hypothetically mean the end of the ‘red’ Republican Party in America as ‘blue’ engulfs America from the west, north central, northeast and in future years…the south. That leaves much for all to think about.

Captain Rick’s Election Scenario #6: Reality

Had I lowered my ‘gut’ pick to 4% Obama 2008 support loss, it would have turned three states blue (Colorado, Virginia and Ohio) and resulted in the following map, which is also the map of actual current results.

image

Captain Rick’s thoughts looking forward

It looks like the popular vote is is also ‘blue’, so it s in sync with the electoral vote. The archaic electoral vote system in America is a subject for future discussion. I hope my followers enjoyed my election scenarios and gained some useful information to consider as we move forward. I hope you will stay with me as I continue to strive to present unique, quality and accurate information.

Captain Rick: The Dow Jones suffers largest loss of 2012, down 313 points, –2.36%

image

Markets around the world responded accordingly:

image

Sincere appreciation for CNN Money for the above snips. Stay tuned for lots more coverage of the Obama reelection.

Captain Rick: CNN’s final national poll before the election shows a tie in popular vote.

image

However, the president of the United States is not chosen by popular vote. The winner must receive 270 or more electoral votes. In 2008 Obama won a ‘blowout’ of electoral votes as shown in the 2008 electoral map below.

image

There will not be a ‘blowout’ in this election. As I have explained in my five previous election scenarios in blog entries below, Obama has lost about 9% of his 2008 popular vote. That places the electoral map into a ‘dead heat’. Lets recap…

The current CNN Electoral map:

Captain Rick’s final Election Scenario:

.

View all of my previous Election Scenarios: https://atridim.wordpress.com/category/presidential-election/

Video and interesting info of the final CNN poll: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t1

I use CNN election data (not polls) in my election scenarios because I have found the info to be accurate and reliable over the years. I hope you will join me in tuning in to CNN.com on election night to watch the results pour in. I will do my best to post an early call of the winner, based on my election scenarios. For sure, you can expect a follow up analysis and blog posting of how it all transpired … what went right and what went wrong … and what we can expect from the results.

Your ‘eagle eye’ on global politics, Captain Rick

Captain Rick: This is Part 5 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. My analysis is based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I highly respect as being very accurate … coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections. As stated in my previous report, my gut says Obama has lost 9% of his 2008 support. I weigh that with heightened significance in this report.

In my previous report Obama and Romney were all tied up at 253/253 electoral votes. In this report I analyze the remaining states of Virginia with 13 electoral votes, Colorado with 9, Iowa with 6 and New Hampshire with 4.

Virginia was blue in 2008 by 6.31%. It was red by greater percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it red.

Iowa was blue in 2008 by 9.58% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

New Hampshire was blue in 2008 by 9.65% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

That leaves Colorado with a blue vote by 8.95% in 2008, just .05% on the red side of 9% gut call, but a sizable red vote in previous elections. I am going to go out on the limb, beyond the the point of hearing it crack, and call Colorado red.

image

That adjusts the electoral votes to 263 for Obama and 275 for Romney, making Romney the next President of the United States of America.

After the votes are in from election day, I will post a final report of how my analysis and ‘9% gut feeling’ faired.

Captain Rick: This is Part 4 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. They are based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I have come to highly respect as being the most accurate in recent elections…coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections.

CNN has now moved Missouri and Indiana to Red and North Carolina from toss up to pink. I had moved them to red in previous reports. So, all is working properly.

In this report I will analyze Ohio with its 18 electoral votes. it is said that Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960 and that no Republican has ever won without its support.  In previous reports I have discussed how my gut says Obama has lost 8-10% of his 2008 support. I will get brave and zero in on the dead center of 9%. Considering the remaining toss-up states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire …(continued below the map)

image

Ohio is the state with the weakest Obama support of 4.54% in 2008. It was also a red state in 2000 and 2004. Being about 4.5% below my gut stat of 9% Obama loss of support since 2008, lets paint Ohio red.

This ties things up at 253 electoral votes each. What a “nail biter”. There are still four toss-up states left with a total of 32 electoral votes. The final result can go either way. The remaining four states are all extremely close to my gut pick of 9% Obama loss since 2008. Watch for part 5 of my for my election scenario’s when I narrow the field of toss-up states to 3 or less.

The map incorrectly shows Michigan leaning blue. I painted it blue in a previous report. This does not affect my electoral vote totals.

Link to Part 3 of my 2012 Election Scenarios: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-the-yellow-states-red-or-blue-based-on-2008-obama-support/

Link to part 2 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/captain-ricks-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-all-of-the-leaning-red-states-red-and-the-leaning-blue-states-blue/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Captain Rick: This is part 3 of a continuing story. Part 2, posted October 19, 2012, presented a map showing electoral status if leaning states were turned red or blue based on the way they were leaning. Obama had 237 electoral votes, Romney 191.

In this scenario we will begin to examine the yellow “Toss up” states. It is no secret that Obama has lost support since 2008. The question is how much? My gut says Obama lost somewhere between 8 and 10% of his 2008 support. In this scenario, lets weed out the states that were weak and heavy Obama supporters in 2008.

Florida: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. A recent CNN poll shows Florida leaning red by 1%. Lets turn it red.

North Carolina: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. Lets turn it red.

Wisconsin: In 2008 Obama won by 13.93%. Lets turn it blue.

Nevada: In 2008 Obama won by 12.5%. Lets turn it blue.

The map below shows the results:

image

This scenario cuts Obama’s previous lead of 46 electoral votes to 18.

Watch for my next report, part 4, as I investigate the remaining “Toss up” states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Link to Part 4: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-part-4-lets-turn-ohio-red-or-blue-wow/

Link to part 2 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/captain-ricks-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-all-of-the-leaning-red-states-red-and-the-leaning-blue-states-blue/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Captain Rick: This is part 2 of a continuing story. Part 1, posted October 2, 2012, presented a map showing the current electoral status of leaning red and leaning blue states. Nothing has changed since then. All of the leaning states are still leaning the same way.

Leaning Red States: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri

Leaning Blue States: Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

If we turn all of the leaning red states red and all of the leaning blue states blue, this map shows the results:

image

Obama still holds a lead by 46 electoral votes. The yellow ‘Toss up’ states will determine this election.

In part 3 of this continuing story I investigate the makeup of the ‘Toss up’ states in an effort to accurately predict the electoral results of the November U.S. Presidential Election. Part 3 was posted on October 21, 2012: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-the-yellow-states-red-or-blue-based-on-2008-obama-support/

Link to part 1 of the story: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/americas-1st-presidential-debate-of-2012-airs-wednesday-103-at-9pm-et-6pm-pt/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_

image

Does the rhetoric of the Obama campaign bring about feelings of déjà vu, along with the inevitable nausea? If so, it could be ’cause we’ve heard it all before somewhere.

The Republican National Committee has outdone itself with this new ad. With apologies to Abe Lincoln, you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time—unless they are Obama voters.

Watch Obama make the same speech in 2012 as he did in 2008:

CLICK to VIEW: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZgQhnNRSuw&feature=BFa&list=PLpRDP9tt_V7szOsqVtWETZtXD_cjQZzID

Bret of Arizona … thanks for referring this outstanding video.

I have added it to my ATRIDIM NEWS JOURNAL Video Collection on YouTube, accessible via the link above.

Captain Rick: Watching the debate last evening, I heard nothing new. It seemed to be much of the same old political rhetoric from both sides.

I did generate an overall perception of how the debate went … I think it all comes down to body language.

Many years ago I developed a very simple means of scoring the debates. It has proven to be very accurate over the years in predicting the next president. It works like this. I take a note pad and write Obama on the left and Romney on the right. I draw a vertical line between them and then place a mark every time I hear a remark that I think will be a winner among American voters.

My Obama / Romney scorecard results: Obama: 11 / Romney 20

But, an equally important part of my analysis is to turn off the sound and re-view the debate. It’s a great way to strip out all of the verbal rhetoric and just watch the body language. Obama looked like he was tired and somewhat mad with a frown on his face much of the time. Romney was full of robust and looked happy with a smile much of the time. I think America will consider this as a strong ingredient in their vote on November 6.

We still have several debates to go. I will be watching. I hope you will also. I will report the results as I see, hear and feel them. I welcome you to chime in and express your thoughts. Our world only improves when we ‘speak up’.

Captain Rick: I received an email today from my friend Ken in California. He said “Arizona is a pink state. You really need to get busy and turn it red. It’s hopeless for me here in California. I gotta get out of this liberal mess.”

Ken, thanks for your email. I hope you will become brave, like me, and post your future replies on my blog so that the entire world can enjoy your important perspective. I will give you a helping hand for your email today.

When I moved to Arizona in 1996, it was one of the most conservative ‘RED’ states there was in the entire country. During the nearly two decades since, many thousands of illegal aliens crossed our very porous border with Mexico…a border that the U.S. government poorly defends.  I do not blame them for wanting to come to a our great state of Arizona, in comparison to the poor economic conditions in their home countries. But the fact is that most of them came to Arizona illegally. America’s laws…or lack of them, allow them to vote. Over the years the Latino vote in Arizona has exploded. Latinos historically vote liberal “BLUE” because it is laden with lots of freebies like health, education and welfare at the expense America’s major tax payers…the middle class. President Obama has recently proclaimed that many children of illegals that were brought to this country at a young age will receive what I call ‘amnesty’. This political move has placed the Latino vote on fire and could become a leading factor in the decision for our next president. It is no secret that Obama is courting the Latino vote. Lets not forget Obama’s massive DOJ attack on Arizona’s SB1070 illegal immigration law.

So it is…Arizona fades from bright RED to PINK. The Latino vote in America will soon turn many of the “RED” states to “PINK” or even “BLUE” in the coming years. Our country is changing as a result of neglegence of those we elect to serve the best interest of America. Tonight’s prime time presidential debate could set the election and America’s course for the next four years.  I have never missed a presidential debate during my entire life of many decades. I urge all to watch and respond with your comments of which candidate you think did a good or bad job of presentation on a subject. 

Captain Rick: This is part 1 of a what will be a continuing story as I investigate the “battleground” states in an effort to determine who will receive enough electoral votes to become the next president of the United States. This report analyses the current electoral map.

The first presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will air across America on all major networks Wednesday 10/3/12 at 9 PM ET, 6PM PT/AZ.

I have copied the CNN Electoral Map below. It shows what I feel is the most accurate status available. Since my previous check, North Carolina has gone from ‘Leaning Romney’ to ‘Toss up’, shifting 15 electoral votes back to ‘Toss up’. Based on my calculations, Colorado, with 9 electoral votes will be the deciding state in this election. Obama now has 237 electoral votes allocated v Romney’s 191. This debate could change the map. I welcome you to chime in with your comments of how you think the debate went. 

image

In part 2 of my continuing story I investigate the leaning red and blue states. It was posted on October 19, 2012: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/captain-ricks-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-all-of-the-leaning-red-states-red-and-the-leaning-blue-states-blue/

Map Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground