Captain Rick: The December Jobs Report marked the tenth month in a row of lackluster job creation. Only 155,000 jobs added, just above the red break-even line of enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. That leaves 4.8 million discouraged workers … hopelessly unemployed.
1.84 million jobs were created during 2012. That sounds huge, but it only broke even with the 1.8 million needed to keep pace with population growth.
U.S. Unemployment rate is inept and meaningless … the real unemployment rate is about 15%
I no longer report on the U.S. Labor Department unemployment percentage, which basically counts only those who are registered and receiving unemployment compensation. It does not include the other half of the workers that dropped off of the government’s ‘radar screen’ … the 4.8 million who have exhausted their unemployment compensation and remain discouraged and hopelessly unemployed. The Labor Department should abandon the ‘unemployment rate’ and replace it with a figure that is closer to reality. The actual unemployment rate, sometimes called the ‘underemployment rate’, stands at about 15%, among the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The growing number of hopelessly unemployed is worrisome
Studies widely show the longer a person is unemployed, the weaker his or her chances are of getting a job. At some point, long-term unemployment can lead workers to become permanently detached from the labor force. That’s not good for the economy.
How long will it take to reduce unemployment to pre recession levels?
The Hamilton Project, an economic research arm of the Brookings Institution, publishes a “jobs gap” calculator that estimates just how long it will take to get back to pre recession levels, assuming the only major job market dropouts are Baby Boomers who are retiring. At the current rate of hiring, the Hamilton Project estimates it would take until 2025 to get back to a pre-recession job market. I must caution … that report does not consider the monumental fiscal challenge America faces with the upcoming Fiscal Cliff Sequester and Debt Ceiling issue. If President Obama and the U.S. Legislature continue to ‘kick the fiscal can down the road’, it could be far beyond 2025 before America recovers to pre recession unemployment levels, possibly never.
Caution for U.S. State Governors and City Managers
If you think America is on the road to recovery … THINK AGAIN !!! America is on a very serious fiscal downhill slide …headed for the ultimate ‘Fiscal Cliff’. Continue to spend money like there is ‘no tomorrow’ or prepare for coming reality by shoring up fiscal defenses.
Get Educated about the serious fiscal problems facing America … and the world
A great source: Captain Rick’s Fiscal Cliff Course 101 … The course starts at the very bottom.