Captain Rick’s 2012 Election Scenarios … … Part 5: the next President of the U.S. will be…

Posted: October 31, 2012 in America, Mitt Romney, President Obama, Presidential Election, United States
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Captain Rick: This is Part 5 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. My analysis is based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I highly respect as being very accurate … coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections. As stated in my previous report, my gut says Obama has lost 9% of his 2008 support. I weigh that with heightened significance in this report.

In my previous report Obama and Romney were all tied up at 253/253 electoral votes. In this report I analyze the remaining states of Virginia with 13 electoral votes, Colorado with 9, Iowa with 6 and New Hampshire with 4.

Virginia was blue in 2008 by 6.31%. It was red by greater percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it red.

Iowa was blue in 2008 by 9.58% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

New Hampshire was blue in 2008 by 9.65% with neutral percentages in previous elections. Lets paint it blue.

That leaves Colorado with a blue vote by 8.95% in 2008, just .05% on the red side of 9% gut call, but a sizable red vote in previous elections. I am going to go out on the limb, beyond the the point of hearing it crack, and call Colorado red.

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That adjusts the electoral votes to 263 for Obama and 275 for Romney, making Romney the next President of the United States of America.

After the votes are in from election day, I will post a final report of how my analysis and ‘9% gut feeling’ faired.

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Comments
  1. Kelli M. Mays says:

    WOW~ So even without “OHIO” Romney is still going to win?!?! I sure hope so. The NEWS channels say over and over, No Ohio, No presidency. I sure hope they are WRONG!

  2. atridim says:

    Hi Kelli,
    Thanks for your comment.
    I am not sure which source you are following…CNN has it as a “toss up” but I have clearly painted Ohio RED as you can see above. I believe Romney is going to win Ohio
    Captain Rick

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