Captain Rick: This is Part 4 of my effort to predetermine the next president of the U.S. Some might think I am throwing darts in determining my Election Scenarios, but that is not true. They are based on my analytical and statistical skills developed during my many years in the engineering field…coupled with the use of CNN election data which I have come to highly respect as being the most accurate in recent elections…coupled with my gut instincts developed from paying close attention to politics during my lifetime, especially the past few elections.
CNN has now moved Missouri and Indiana to Red and North Carolina from toss up to pink. I had moved them to red in previous reports. So, all is working properly.
In this report I will analyze Ohio with its 18 electoral votes. it is said that Ohio has voted for every elected president since 1960 and that no Republican has ever won without its support. In previous reports I have discussed how my gut says Obama has lost 8-10% of his 2008 support. I will get brave and zero in on the dead center of 9%. Considering the remaining toss-up states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire …(continued below the map)
Ohio is the state with the weakest Obama support of 4.54% in 2008. It was also a red state in 2000 and 2004. Being about 4.5% below my gut stat of 9% Obama loss of support since 2008, lets paint Ohio red.
This ties things up at 253 electoral votes each. What a “nail biter”. There are still four toss-up states left with a total of 32 electoral votes. The final result can go either way. The remaining four states are all extremely close to my gut pick of 9% Obama loss since 2008. Watch for part 5 of my for my election scenario’s when I narrow the field of toss-up states to 3 or less.
The map incorrectly shows Michigan leaning blue. I painted it blue in a previous report. This does not affect my electoral vote totals.
Link to Part 3 of my 2012 Election Scenarios: https://atridim.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/captain-ricks-2012-election-scenarios-what-if-we-turn-the-yellow-states-red-or-blue-based-on-2008-obama-support/