Captain Rick: This is part 3 of a continuing story. Part 2, posted October 19, 2012, presented a map showing electoral status if leaning states were turned red or blue based on the way they were leaning. Obama had 237 electoral votes, Romney 191.
In this scenario we will begin to examine the yellow “Toss up” states. It is no secret that Obama has lost support since 2008. The question is how much? My gut says Obama lost somewhere between 8 and 10% of his 2008 support. In this scenario, lets weed out the states that were weak and heavy Obama supporters in 2008.
Florida: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. A recent CNN poll shows Florida leaning red by 1%. Lets turn it red.
North Carolina: In 2008 Obama won by 0.33%. Lets turn it red.
Wisconsin: In 2008 Obama won by 13.93%. Lets turn it blue.
Nevada: In 2008 Obama won by 12.5%. Lets turn it blue.
The map below shows the results:
This scenario cuts Obama’s previous lead of 46 electoral votes to 18.
Watch for my next report, part 4, as I investigate the remaining “Toss up” states of Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.